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🛒 Commerce
10–30 hrs/wk

Shopify DTC

Sell physical products direct-to-consumer via Shopify. Requires inventory or print-on-demand, plus marketing.

Startup cost
$1,000–$5,000
Time to first $
~28 days
Break even at
18 orders/mo
Following
6K
Overview

The ratings, in full

Difficulty
Startup cost
Income ceiling
Scalability
Time to first $

Who can help

DTC Ops
Ads
CRO
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Videos

10 walkthroughs worth watching

7 more walkthroughs

All-Access opens the rest, each with a written summary and timestamped jump points so you can skip to the part you need — for $120/year.

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Break-even

The number that decides it

At this playbook's own planning figures, covering $600 of monthly running costs takes:

18 orders a month

You keep about $34.65 per order after fees and delivery costs.

Run your own numbers

That figure assumes this playbook's prices and costs. Members get the calculator: change the price, the fees, the delivery cost, the churn — and watch the break-even move before spending a cent.

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Economics

What the maths has to do

Monthly revenue target
$1,000

KPIs

  • MER (Marketing Efficiency Ratio) = Revenue / Ad Spend → target ≥ 3.0 at scale
  • Blended CAC → target ≤ 30% of AOV
  • Email/SMS revenue share → target 20–30%

Price points

AOV
35–120Bundle to lift AOV (B2G1, kits)(plan for 55)

Paths to target

  • 18–25 orders @ $55 AOV with 65% CM and MER ≥ 2.5
  • or 35–45 orders @ $35 AOV with higher email share

Launch velocity

Week 1
Samples ordered; brand & offer defined; store scaffolded
Week 2 to 3
Lifestyle product shots; PDPs live; ad/creative tests running
Week 4 to 8
Breakout creatives identified; CRO passes; email/SMS flows driving 20–30% revenue

Monetization notes

  • Validate with 1–2 SKUs; expand via variants and bundles.
  • Retention: post-purchase flow, cross-sell, subscription for consumables.
  • CRO before scale: keep PDP load < 2.5s, above-the-fold social proof, frictionless checkout.

Contribution margin

Note
After COGS + shipping + pick/pack + payment fees (excl. ad spend)
Target %
55–70%
Budget

What it costs, line by line

Build to first sale
$1,000 – $5,000

Caps at $6,000 fully loaded

Sales & marketing to $1k/mo
$500 – $1,500

Per 30 days

The itemised budget

The top-line range is above. Members get every line under it — what each tool, sample and ad test costs at lean, standard and fully-loaded, so you know what you're committing to before you commit.

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What you’ll need

The kit, and what it runs you

  • Capital for inventory or ads$1,000 – $5,000
  • Shopify + apps$50 – $150per month
  • Ad account & creativesFreeMeta/TikTok/Google
  • Logistics & CXFreefulfillment + support SLAs

Everything above: $1,050 – $5,150 to get started.

Recommended stack

Platform

Shopify

Fast theme (Dawn or paid), app hygiene to keep speed

Payments/Checkout

Shopify Payments
Shop Pay Installments

Reduce friction; boost CVR

The rest of the stack

Every remaining tool this playbook recommends, what each one costs, and which free tier is good enough to start on.

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Checklist

8 steps, in order, costed

  1. 1

    Find product via Alibaba or POD partner

    Check margins incl. shipping, duty, fees

    Build: FreeMarketing: Free
  2. 2

    Order samples, validate quality

    QC + unboxing photos

    Build: $150 – $400Marketing: Free
  3. 3

    Set up Shopify store ($29/mo)

    Theme, policies, tracking

    Build: $58 – $87Marketing: Free

5 more steps in the full playbook

Unlock the rest — plus progress tracking, the break-even calculator and every other playbook — for $120/year.

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Risks

How this goes wrong

Cash flow issues with inventory

Inventory buys + ad spend before cash collected create negative cash conversion cycles.

Watch these

  • CCC (days)
    Diagnostic
    Days inventory + AR − APHealthy: ≤ 30 daysAct at: > 45 days
  • Stockouts rate
    Leading
    % sessions with OOS SKUHealthy: < 3%Act at: ≥ 5%
  • Dead stock
    Lagging
    % inventory > 60 days DOHHealthy: < 10%Act at: ≥ 20%

What to do

  • Start POD or small MOQs; reorder on signals; negotiate deposits/terms.
  • Forecast weekly; kill slow variants; bundle to clear tail.
  • Use preorders for new variants; reserve ad push for stocked SKUs.

The rest of the failure modes

Every remaining risk, with the metric that warns you it's happening, the reading that means act now, and what to do about it.

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Timeline

What the first months look like

Week by week

The milestone schedule this playbook is written around — what should be true by week one, week three and month three, so you can tell early whether you're behind.

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